Being dealt a hard 16 is one of those seemingly tricky hands. It is not a little hand, but it is not by any means a strong hand either. And that makes it difficult to play.
Naturally what play you choose is determined, or should be determined, by the dealer’s up card. However, many blackjack players will stand on a hard 16 regardless of what the dealer is showing. Standing is the correct play to make half of the time. But not all the time.
Let’s take a look at the basic strategy chart. You will see that it recommends standing when faced with a dealer’s 2 through 6. But it recommends to hit when faced with a dealer’s 7 through 10, a face card or an Ace.
Before you say that hitting a hard sixteen against anything is too big of a risk because the total is too high, look at some logic first.
If you assume that the dealer’s hole card is worth 10, then that means that he would have a total of 17 through 20, or even blackjack. And all of those hands will beat a hard 16. You hit because you know that the chances of losing are pretty solid if you stand against those dealer up cards. So you hit to try to improve your hand rather than going down without a fight.
This is why you stand when the dealer is showing anything less than a 7. Again, assuming that the dealer’s hole card is an Ace, he would have a 12 through 16. And he would have to hit all of those. You as a player are hoping that he will hit to busting.
And that’s why you stand—your chances of winning are greater in the dealer busting. But when he’s showing a 7 or higher he already has a chance of winning so you hit in hopes of making your hand more competitive.
So when you find yourself with a hard 16 and facing a 7 or higher remember to hit. Even though it seems like a gamble do it. You will have a better chance in the long run by hitting against those higher cards than in standing.