Insurance is the one play in a regular game of online blackjack that needs to be talked about a lot. Many players truly do not understand why insurance is so bad for their blackjack odds and why they should not include it in their blackjack strategy.
In their eyes they are not losing money if the dealer does have a natural blackjack since they are getting the amount of their original wager back. Yes, with insurance you do break even, but the dealer has to have a 10 for a hole card in order for that to happen. And the odds are actually not in the house’s favor to have a 10 hole card.
There are thirteen different types of cards in a deck, with four of each type. Of those thirteen cards only four are worth 10 in blackjack and could create a natural blackjack when the dealer is showing an Ace: 10, Jack, Queen and King. So that is four out of thirteen cards, or a 31% chance of the dealer getting that natural blackjack.
On the other hand the other nine cards would keep the dealer from having a natural, which would cause you to lose your insurance bet, which is a 69% chance of losing the insurance bet.
Just looking at the odds you can see that the odds are in favor of the player losing their insurance bet, which is what casinos and online casinos want since insurance is a money-maker for them.
And speaking of money, let’s turn those odds into money so that you can see what a player stands to lose blackjack odds-wise from insurance.
If you were wagering $10 game of online blackjack, insurance would cost $5. Based on the odds, you stand to win $10 (insurance pays 2-1) four times for a total amount of $40 won. But you would have odds of losing your insurance wager nine times, which totals for a $45 loss.
Even if you won insurance four times and then lost it nine times, you still would not break even—you would still lose money. Which is exactly why insurance should not be a part of any players blackjack strategy. The odds are designed for the player to lose.