Busting Chances of Stiff Hands

On 07.02.10, In Blackjack Strategy, By Vivi

Stiff hands are some of the most morale dropping hands in blackjack. As soon as you see one of those hard hands you already begin thinking that you have lost. Unfortunately there really is not a lot that a player can do in these blackjack situations.

When it comes to blackjack strategy and stiff hands the best course of action to take is to follow basic strategy and make the play that has the best statistical chances. Stiff hands require defensive playing, which in most cases with these hands is to stand.

However some of these instances the best play to make is to hit, as odd as that may sound. The reason for hitting is to take your chance of catching a low card. Hitting happens when the dealer has the least chances of busting so as a player you hit since you are damned if you do and you are damned if you do not. A friend of mine put it this way: “If I am facing a loss anyway it is not going to hurt me to try hitting.”

But with hitting comes the chance of busting. The chances of stiff hands busting looks like this:

Hard 16: 61%
Hard 15: 59%
Hard 14: 56%
Hard 13: 52%
Hard 12: 48%

The reason your chances of busting increase is because the greater the hand total, the less amount of cards there are that will not bust your hand.

With a hard 16 there are only four cards in blackjack that will not bust your hand. A hard 15 has five cards that will not bust it; a hard 14 has six cards; a hard 13 has seven; and a hard 12 has eight it could take.

Keep the chances in mind when you decide to hit a stiff hand. And make sure to follow basic strategy when playing blackjack—remember it gives you the best statistical play for your hand, even if you might think it is not the best move. Stick with it and you will lose less over time.

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Surrender is Not a Bad Play

On 04.02.10, In Blackjack Strategy, By Vivi

A lot of the time surrender is a play greeted with negative feelings. Many blackjack players feel that it is taking an easy way out or chickening out. But the truth is that it is a smart play to make, if available, in some instances.

Surrender is blackjack’s version of folding. It allows the player to bow out of the round. But unlike in poker, a player does not lose all of their bet for surrendering. In blackjack the player only loses half of their wager.

There are two types of surrender: early and late. In the early version the player can surrender before the dealer checks for blackjack. In the late version the dealer checks for blackjack first; only if he does not have a natural blackjack are players allowed to surrender. Early surrender favors players because it allows them out of the round even if the dealer has a blackjack.

According to basic strategy, the best times to surrender in blackjack are when you have a hard 15 against a dealer’s 10 and when you have a hard 16 against a dealer’s 9, 10 or Ace.

The reason these are the best times to surrender is because you have a difficult hand to do anything with and, the dealer has a strong starting point to either have a strong hand with his hole card or hit to build a strong hand. Your chances of winning with one of those hands against those dealer up cards is very small.

So given the ability to exit the round without losing all your wager—to surrender—is a better option that the more likely outcome, which is to lose and lose your entire wager too.

If you find a blackjack game, either an online blackjack game or one in a casino, that offers surrender play there. If you can find a blackjack game with early surrender do not walk away from that game.

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Pairs to Definitely Split: 8/8

On 03.02.10, In Blackjack Strategy, By Vivi

Now that I have covered the two pairs that you should never, ever split, I am going to discuss a pair that should always, always be split: a pair of 8’s.

A pair of 8’s has the potential to be a tricky hand. If you do not split them you have a terrible hand to play: a hard 16. Also known as one of the stiff hands.

A stiff hand is one that you pretty much have to stand on because your chances of busting are too great. A pair of 8’s being played unsplit would give you a hard 16.

To me a hard 16 is the worst stiff hand to be dealt. It is the stiff hand that is too high to really hit on because you can only take on a 5 or less to keep from busting. It is also one of only two hands in blackjack that basic strategy recommends surrendering if surrender is an option.

With all that being said about a hard 16, why would you not split a pair of 8’s?

If you are dealt a true hard 16 (6/10 and 7/9) there is nothing that you can do about your hand. You have no choice but to face your hard 16 and play it as best you can—which usually means standing and hoping the dealer busts.

But with a pair of 8’s you do not have to play your hand as a hard 16. You have a way out. You can split your pair of 8’s by doubling your original bet and playing with two hands.

If you split an 8/8, each hand will start with an 8 and you can hit to try to build a better hand. It is like allowing your hand to have a second chance, a chance to recover and not be a hard 16.

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How to Play a Hard 16

On 02.17.10, In Blackjack Strategy, By Vivi

Being dealt a hard 16 is one of those seemingly tricky hands. It is not a little hand, but it is not by any means a strong hand either. And that makes it difficult to play.

Naturally what play you choose is determined, or should be determined, by the dealer’s up card. However, many blackjack players will stand on a hard 16 regardless of what the dealer is showing. Standing is the correct play to make half of the time. But not all the time.

Let’s take a look at the basic strategy chart. You will see that it recommends standing when faced with a dealer’s 2 through 6. But it recommends to hit when faced with a dealer’s 7 through 10, a face card or an Ace.

Before you say that hitting a hard sixteen against anything is too big of a risk because the total is too high, look at some logic first.

If you assume that the dealer’s hole card is worth 10, then that means that he would have a total of 17 through 20, or even blackjack. And all of those hands will beat a hard 16. You hit because you know that the chances of losing are pretty solid if you stand against those dealer up cards. So you hit to try to improve your hand rather than going down without a fight.

This is why you stand when the dealer is showing anything less than a 7. Again, assuming that the dealer’s hole card is an Ace, he would have a 12 through 16. And he would have to hit all of those. You as a player are hoping that he will hit to busting.

And that’s why you stand—your chances of winning are greater in the dealer busting. But when he’s showing a 7 or higher he already has a chance of winning so you hit in hopes of making your hand more competitive.

So when you find yourself with a hard 16 and facing a 7 or higher remember to hit. Even though it seems like a gamble do it. You will have a better chance in the long run by hitting against those higher cards than in standing.

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