Busting Chances of Stiff Hands

On 07.02.10, In Blackjack Strategy, By Vivi

Stiff hands are some of the most morale dropping hands in blackjack. As soon as you see one of those hard hands you already begin thinking that you have lost. Unfortunately there really is not a lot that a player can do in these blackjack situations.

When it comes to blackjack strategy and stiff hands the best course of action to take is to follow basic strategy and make the play that has the best statistical chances. Stiff hands require defensive playing, which in most cases with these hands is to stand.

However some of these instances the best play to make is to hit, as odd as that may sound. The reason for hitting is to take your chance of catching a low card. Hitting happens when the dealer has the least chances of busting so as a player you hit since you are damned if you do and you are damned if you do not. A friend of mine put it this way: “If I am facing a loss anyway it is not going to hurt me to try hitting.”

But with hitting comes the chance of busting. The chances of stiff hands busting looks like this:

Hard 16: 61%
Hard 15: 59%
Hard 14: 56%
Hard 13: 52%
Hard 12: 48%

The reason your chances of busting increase is because the greater the hand total, the less amount of cards there are that will not bust your hand.

With a hard 16 there are only four cards in blackjack that will not bust your hand. A hard 15 has five cards that will not bust it; a hard 14 has six cards; a hard 13 has seven; and a hard 12 has eight it could take.

Keep the chances in mind when you decide to hit a stiff hand. And make sure to follow basic strategy when playing blackjack—remember it gives you the best statistical play for your hand, even if you might think it is not the best move. Stick with it and you will lose less over time.

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What to do with a Hard 12

On 06.18.10, In Blackjack Strategy, By Vivi

Of the hard hands, the stiff hands are the most difficult to play in blackjack because it feels like you are already going to lose before you have even really started the round. In such instances the best you can do is minimalize your potential losses. In terms of blackjack strategy it means making the play with the least possible chances of losing, even if the difference of losing between two plays is not great, it will impact your overall blackjack odds.

In most cases novice blackjack players will stand on a hard 12 if the dealer has a 2 through 6. This is done most likely because all of the other hard hands will stand against those dealer up cards.

But a hard 12 is a little bit different from the other stiff hands. When the dealer shows a 2 or a 3 you should hit.

Standing against a 2 or 3 with a hard 12 will cause you to lose 65% of the time and win 35% of the time. But if you were to hit against those two up cards, then you would have a 63% shot of losing and a 37% shot of winning.

Even though there is only a 2% difference, losing 63% of the time is better for your blackjack odds overall than losing 65% of the time. If you want to look at it in a more positive light then think of your blackjack odds in these terms: if you stand you will only win 35% of the time, and if you hit you will win 37% of the time.

Think of hitting a hard 12 against a 2 or 3 as a way of improving your blackjack odds on a stiff hand, even if it is only a little improvement—some is better than none.

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Surrender is Not a Bad Play

On 04.02.10, In Blackjack Strategy, By Vivi

A lot of the time surrender is a play greeted with negative feelings. Many blackjack players feel that it is taking an easy way out or chickening out. But the truth is that it is a smart play to make, if available, in some instances.

Surrender is blackjack’s version of folding. It allows the player to bow out of the round. But unlike in poker, a player does not lose all of their bet for surrendering. In blackjack the player only loses half of their wager.

There are two types of surrender: early and late. In the early version the player can surrender before the dealer checks for blackjack. In the late version the dealer checks for blackjack first; only if he does not have a natural blackjack are players allowed to surrender. Early surrender favors players because it allows them out of the round even if the dealer has a blackjack.

According to basic strategy, the best times to surrender in blackjack are when you have a hard 15 against a dealer’s 10 and when you have a hard 16 against a dealer’s 9, 10 or Ace.

The reason these are the best times to surrender is because you have a difficult hand to do anything with and, the dealer has a strong starting point to either have a strong hand with his hole card or hit to build a strong hand. Your chances of winning with one of those hands against those dealer up cards is very small.

So given the ability to exit the round without losing all your wager—to surrender—is a better option that the more likely outcome, which is to lose and lose your entire wager too.

If you find a blackjack game, either an online blackjack game or one in a casino, that offers surrender play there. If you can find a blackjack game with early surrender do not walk away from that game.

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Best Times to Double Down in Blackjack

On 03.10.10, In Blackjack Strategy, By Vivi

Regardless of whether blackjack is played online or in a land-based casino doubling down is a highly advantageous play to make. The key is knowing when to double down and why those times are the best to do so.

First the double down play is a blackjack play in which the player doubles his or her original bet and receives only one more card before standing. Because only one more card is received it is important to already have a good starting hand total.

Doubling down, per basic strategy, should be done when dealt the following hard hands against the specified dealer up cards:

- Hard 9 vs. dealer’s 3-6
- Hard 10 vs. dealer’s 2-9
- Hard 11 vs. dealer’s 2-10

The reason it is most advantageous to double down on these hands is because, statistically speaking, this hands have good potential of becoming strong hands with one card. And even if the blackjack player receives a low card and their hard hand becomes a stiff hand, the dealer still has a decent shot of busting—which is what is desired when faced with a stiff hand.

Doubling down allows a blackjack player to earn double their payout if they win. It is taking full advantage of being dealt a good starting hand total.

If you had bet $10 and been dealt one of the above hands, would you rather be paid $10 for winning or $20?

If a blackjack player is in the position to take full advantage of their hand and make the more on a payout, then he or she should. And that is the point of doubling down in blackjack.

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Pairs You Do Not Split: 10/10

On 03.01.10, In Blackjack Strategy, By Vivi

In my previous post I discussed why you never want to split a pair of 5’s. It simply boils down to what play is in the best interest of your strategy. And blackjack strategy is all about making the best play for the situation you find yourself in.

In the case of being dealt 10/10 you have two options. You can put forward another bet and split the pair into two new hands, each starting with a 10.

On the surface this seems like a smart play to make. You will be starting both hands on solid ground. If more low cards are flowing you have somewhat of a chance of building both 10’s up to strong hands. If the cards are flowing high then you have a chance of maybe creating two strong hands.

Or you choose the other play and stand on the pair as a hard 20.

This is the better play to make. A hard 20 is one of the strongest hands to be dealt. The only way the dealer can beat you is if he has a natural blackjack or if he hits to 21. So you have pretty strong chances of winning.

If you were to split the pair you run the risk of sacrificing a strong hand for only the chance of creating hands that you might be able to build up into strong hands. But why sacrifice a strong position for one that is unsure?

While blackjack is a gambling game, it is seen as ignorant to take unnecessary risks—even when gambling. The point of having a strategy in blackjack is to make the most advantageous play to win. Splitting a pair of 10’s is not nearly as advantageous as playing the hand out as a hard 20.

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How to Play a Hard 16

On 02.17.10, In Blackjack Strategy, By Vivi

Being dealt a hard 16 is one of those seemingly tricky hands. It is not a little hand, but it is not by any means a strong hand either. And that makes it difficult to play.

Naturally what play you choose is determined, or should be determined, by the dealer’s up card. However, many blackjack players will stand on a hard 16 regardless of what the dealer is showing. Standing is the correct play to make half of the time. But not all the time.

Let’s take a look at the basic strategy chart. You will see that it recommends standing when faced with a dealer’s 2 through 6. But it recommends to hit when faced with a dealer’s 7 through 10, a face card or an Ace.

Before you say that hitting a hard sixteen against anything is too big of a risk because the total is too high, look at some logic first.

If you assume that the dealer’s hole card is worth 10, then that means that he would have a total of 17 through 20, or even blackjack. And all of those hands will beat a hard 16. You hit because you know that the chances of losing are pretty solid if you stand against those dealer up cards. So you hit to try to improve your hand rather than going down without a fight.

This is why you stand when the dealer is showing anything less than a 7. Again, assuming that the dealer’s hole card is an Ace, he would have a 12 through 16. And he would have to hit all of those. You as a player are hoping that he will hit to busting.

And that’s why you stand—your chances of winning are greater in the dealer busting. But when he’s showing a 7 or higher he already has a chance of winning so you hit in hopes of making your hand more competitive.

So when you find yourself with a hard 16 and facing a 7 or higher remember to hit. Even though it seems like a gamble do it. You will have a better chance in the long run by hitting against those higher cards than in standing.

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What to Do When Dealt a Hard 12

On 01.13.10, In Blackjack Strategy, Online Blackjack, By Vivi

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Unfortunately the average blackjack player will be dealt a stiff hand around 43% of the time while playing. Stiff hands include hard 12 through hard 16. The reason it feels like we are dealt these hands more often is that they occur more often. There are more hard hands in blackjack than there are strong hands or low hands.

The best that you can do with a stiff hand is to play according to basic strategy. But if you are lucky enough to be playing in a game that allows for early or even late surrender, you can go with those plays and minimize your losses.

The frustrating aspect of hard hands is that it is difficult to make a winning hand with them and not bust while trying. But of the hard hands, hard 12 is the one that offers you the most opportunity.

According to basic strategy, it is best to hit a hard 12 against seven of the possible dealer up cards, whereas the other hard hands are only hitting on five of the dealer up cards.

With a hard 12 basic strategy recommends hitting against not only 7 and higher, but also hitting against a dealer’s up card of 2 or 3.

When hitting a hard 12 against a 2 or a 3, you have a 37% chance of winning the round. If you stand against a 2 or a 3 like you would with the other stiff hands, you only have a 35% chance at winning.

Blackjack strategy is about increasing our chances of winning and minimizing our losses. And while we have a greater chance of losing with a stiff hand, we have to do the best we can to keep our losses down. If there is a way to increase our chances of winning, we are likewise reducing our chances of losing.

In the case of a hard 12 against a 2 or 3, the best play to make to increase our chances is to hit. While we are only increasing our chances by 2%, it is 2% more than if we did nothing and stand.

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