Unfortunately the average blackjack player will be dealt a stiff hand around 43% of the time while playing. Stiff hands include hard 12 through hard 16. The reason it feels like we are dealt these hands more often is that they occur more often. There are more hard hands in blackjack than there are strong hands or low hands.
The best that you can do with a stiff hand is to play according to basic strategy. But if you are lucky enough to be playing in a game that allows for early or even late surrender, you can go with those plays and minimize your losses.
The frustrating aspect of hard hands is that it is difficult to make a winning hand with them and not bust while trying. But of the hard hands, hard 12 is the one that offers you the most opportunity.
According to basic strategy, it is best to hit a hard 12 against seven of the possible dealer up cards, whereas the other hard hands are only hitting on five of the dealer up cards.
With a hard 12 basic strategy recommends hitting against not only 7 and higher, but also hitting against a dealer’s up card of 2 or 3.
When hitting a hard 12 against a 2 or a 3, you have a 37% chance of winning the round. If you stand against a 2 or a 3 like you would with the other stiff hands, you only have a 35% chance at winning.
Blackjack strategy is about increasing our chances of winning and minimizing our losses. And while we have a greater chance of losing with a stiff hand, we have to do the best we can to keep our losses down. If there is a way to increase our chances of winning, we are likewise reducing our chances of losing.
In the case of a hard 12 against a 2 or 3, the best play to make to increase our chances is to hit. While we are only increasing our chances by 2%, it is 2% more than if we did nothing and stand.